Friday, January 3, 2014

Accuracy, resilience and denial

... three ways to deal with the future.

Accuracy is the most rewarding way to deal with what will happen tomorrow--if you predict correctly. Accuracy rewards those that put all their bets on one possible outcome. The thing is, accuracy requires either a significant investment of time and money, or inside information (or luck, but that's a different game entirely). Without a reason to believe that you've got better information than everyone else, it's hard to see how you can be confident that this is a smart bet.
Resilience is the best strategy for those realistic enough to admit that they can't predict the future with more accuracy than others. Resilience isn't a bet on one outcome, instead, it's an investment across a range of possible outcomes, a way to ensure that regardless of what actually occurs (within the range), you'll do fine.
And denial, of course, is the strategy of assuming that the future will be just like today.
If you enter a winner-take-all competition against many other players, accuracy is generally the only rational play. Consider a cross-country ski race. If 500 people enter and all that matters is first place, then you and your support team have to make a very specific bet on what the weather will be like as you wax your skis. Picking a general purpose wax is the resilient strategy, but you'll lose out to the team that's lucky enough or smart enough to pick precisely the right wax for the eventual temperature.
Of course, and this is the huge of course, most competitions aren't winner take all. Most endeavors we participate in offer long-term, generous entrants plenty of rewards. Playing the game is a form of winning the game. In those competitions, we win by being resilient.
Unfortunately, partly due to our fear of losing as well as our mythologizing of the winner-take-all, we often make two mistakes. The first is to overdo our focus on accuracy, on guessing right, on betting it all on the 'right' answer. We underappreciate just how powerful long-term resilience can be.
And the second mistake is to be so overwhelmed by all the choices and all the apparent risk that instead of choosing the powerful path of resilience, we choose not to play at all. Denial rarely pays.

5 Elements of an Effective Business Plan That Will Leave Them Begging for More

At one time standard protocol called for a lengthy, very detailed business plan that would permit the reader, be it an investor or potential client, to get a complete understanding of a proposed business idea, product of service right off the bat. But unfortunately for those poor souls who slaved away writing 20, 30 ñ even 50 page business plans, the end result was often rejection. That meant that weeks or months of work may have been wasted, leaving the author with a sense of discouragement.
Fortunately, today, a one page proposal has become expected by many in the business world. Just as employers expect job applicants to summarize their personal information on a single page resume, entrepreneurs pitching an idea are often expected to reduce the details of a business plan to a handful of highlights on one page. So, whether you’re a sole proprietor trying to lure investors so you can launch your new idea, or whether you’re an employee in an established company trying to increase your market share with an innovative new concept, you may be called upon to embrace the one-pager. If so, consider the following advice in order to help you make a good first impression.
    Keep It Short
If you want to get your foot in the door, as mentioned above, you need to accept the idea that every coherent business proposal should be capable of being summarized in one page. There’s good news and bad news as a result of the advent of the one page business plan. On the positive side, reducing your idea, plan or concept to a single page increases the chance that your intended reader will actually review it. After all, if someone receives numerous 30 page business plans, chances are slim that he’ll be able to give his undivided attention to the details of any of them. On the other hand, summarizing a complex business plan on a single piece of paper can be overwhelming. Authors of these one-pagers must strive to balance thoroughness, so the reader can get a complete understanding of the idea, with brevity, because our attention spans seem to be getting shorter and shorter. And because of short attention spans, readers expect these one page pitches to captivate their
attention.
Resisting the urge to include everything about your concept or get bogged down in the details can be difficult if you’ve been living with your idea for a long time. Therefore, get some objective advice from friends or colleagues who aren’t as attached to your proposal, and definitely get people you trust to proofread your one-pager before you distribute it.
Make It Easy to Understand
The purpose of reducing your proposal to writing is to clearly communicate your idea, as opposed to impressing readers with how smart you are. As a result, resist the temptation to use unnecessarily complicated vocabulary and extremely technical explanations. Busy executives reading your plan should be able to peruse it once and gain a pretty clear understanding of your vision. If they have to reread it over and over to comprehend your points, you may lose them.
In the interest of clarity, make sure you consider your audience as you draft the one-pager. If your reader will likely be a stuffy executive, you may want to keep it completely professional. On the other hand, if your market is more youth-driven, then you may want the tone of your business plan to demonstrate that you’re in tune with that demographic. Depending on the circumstances, you may want to prepare multiple versions of the business plan to distribute to the different classes of readers you intend to target.
Mention Your Target Customers or Clients
A great idea is worthless if you haven’t honed in on your target clientele. Therefore, your business plan should make it apparent that you’ve researched the market and have a plan for attracting customers.
Explain Your Competitive Advantage
A savvy reader will expect you to convey why your idea serves a need in the market and why opportunity exists in that industry. Therefore, make sure you’ve researched the competitive landscape in the market you’re targeting and explain why your idea is unique and will likely fare well against the competition.
Don’t Overlook Logistics
If you want to be taken seriously, even the best, high-concept ideas must be grounded in economic reality. Readers expect your business plan to project your estimated costs and likely income with adequate supporting data. And if you’re looking for investors, for example, the reader of your business plan should come away with a clear understanding of how long it’ll take you to get your idea off the ground. As your concept evolves and you make progress, edit your one-pager to make it clear that your dream is closer to becoming a reality.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

The Scramble For A Better Bed Bug Buster Read more at http://www.business-opportunities.biz/2013/12/31/the-scramble-for-a-better-bed-bug-buster/#QgyMoiasxFCQ9Rcr.99

Bed bugs may be small, but the effect they have on the life of someone whose home is infested is huge. The process to get rid of the pests can be long, expensive, and frustrating. This problem has brought together around 75 companies in Chicago, all hoping to try and find the best way to kill the bug.
Bourdeau said bed bug business is booming. It went from virtually zero percent of Flynn Pest Control’s business less than five years ago to about 20 percent of what the company brings in today.
“It’s probably going to be a big part of our business for … the next ten years,” he said.
Companies attending the conference showed search and destroy methods ranging from bug-sniffing dogs to vacuum-like machines that spout carbon dioxide to freeze the bugs.
For example, The Bed Bug Baker features a heated tent that can hold a dining room’s worth of furniture to bake away bed bugs at home. For hotel room infestations, there’s an electric heater that can bake the whole room.
Another product is a dust made of crushed fossils called diatomaceous earth that can be sprinkled on floors. It kills bed bugs by dehydrating their shell. Bed bugs walk through the dust, which is also a desiccant, and gradually dry out, said Jeffrey White, an entomologist with BedBug Central.

我敬佩两种人

1.我敬佩两种人:
年轻时陪男人过苦日子的女人,
富裕时陪女人过好日子的男人。


2.我远离两种人:
遇到好事就伸手的人,
碰到难处就躲闪的人。


3.我挂念两种人:
相濡以沫的爱人,
肝胆相照的朋友。


4.我谢绝两种人:
做事不道义的人,
处事不忠诚的人。

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

BB霜和CC霜哪个更好

之前大家一股脑儿疯BB霜,只要冠上BB霜的产品,几乎没有不卖的,之后,还出现不同质地的BB粉饼、BB粉等等,后来,好像出现更厉害的CC霜,把美容市场搅得天翻地覆的,到底,这两者的区隔在哪里。


BB 霜的原意为Blemish Balm,若是直译的话,应该是伤疤用的软膏,没错,当初BB霜出现的原因,其实是皮肤科医师,為了让那些做过医学美容手术的 人,因為皮肤比较脆弱、经过治疗在肤表產生红肿现象,但又必须涂抹保养品,兼具保养、保水、遮掩红肿与防晒需求,所以设计出只要一瓶,即可满足术后肌肤的 品,没想到,这种多效合一的產品,开始热烈受到欢迎,并开始被各种美容品牌改良、进化,成為既可保养、又能调理肤色的底妆產品。


过,毕竟BB霜的缘起是為了遮盖肌肤上的瑕疵红肿,所以,一般说来,BB霜的质地总是感觉比较厚重些,而且有越来越取代粉底液的趋势,这似乎有点开始背离BB霜还有保养功能的原意。於是,CC 霜的出现,让底妆与保养有了另一项新选择。


目前市面上大品牌的CC霜,不论是Color Corrector或是Color Correction,其实就是指肤色校正的意思,从英文的字面上来 看,CC霜与BB霜是很不一样的。总的来说,CC霜的质地比较轻盈,更接近保养品的型态,并且不以完全遮盖原始肤色為主,走的是调整肌肤成為健康肤色為 重,更把保养成分当成重要的内涵,以及完善的防晒保护,让厌倦BB霜的人,有了另外一个新选择。

CC霜一览
上市时间:2013年5月15日
防阳效果:SPF50+ PA++
主 要诉求:以Color色彩修饰加上Care全日保养為主,一次推出五种顏色,為紫色、绿色、白色、蓝色与珊瑚色,可以根据肤色需求,选择单色使用或是两种 以上调色用。超防护光感亮白CC霜取代原本同样是多种顏色选择的防护隔离霜。在保养方面,标榜一次达到调色、防护、美白、轻透、隐形毛孔与保湿六种功效。
上市时间:2013年5月2日
防阳效果:SPF30 PA+++
主 要诉求:共四支色调,两支建议单独使用的明亮色系,一為打造粉嫩肌、一為打造健康肤色;另两支為调色专用,局部饰底或整脸用均可,一為粉红色、一為轻桃 色。不过,Clinique强调不以传统的粉体来修饰肤色,而是採取不含色彩结合光学科技的技术,透过光学紫滤镜科技,修饰蜡黄、暗沉、偏黑或苍白肌肤。 水磁场自动校色保湿CC霜属於明星水磁场系列,保湿的效果自然不在话下。
上市时间:2012年11月1日
防阳效果:SPF30
主 要诉求:唯一标榜能让肌肤变成小脸效果的CC霜,将抗老超紧塑系列的拉提效果,加入CC霜中,有别於其他单纯以保湿或是美白的保养诉求。所谓的5D,指的 是利用5D拉提科技,将保养成分深入表皮、表皮真皮连接处、真皮表层、真皮网状层与皮下组织。两种顏色色选,还加入矿物匀亮分子,让肤表呈现平滑明亮感。
上市时间:2012年9月26日
防阳效果:SPF30 PA+++
主 要诉求:以具有保湿修护功能的全效遮瑕乳自居,重点是质地是轻盈、无油更舒润,丝绒滑顺的完妆效果,特别适合亚洲女性,而且不会造成任何厚重的负担感。单 一自然肤色色选,适合所有肤色使用,还有淡淡的白桃与果香,以及花香氛围,五合一的舒缓、保湿、抗老、隔离与遮瑕,给肌肤简单却多效的全方位呵护。